News from Cairo and the neighborhood are puzzling: elections delayed; a quick trip to Riyadh by both Sisi and Ardogan; large weapon deals by Egypt; Yemen collapsing into civil war; Isis fiasco; Iranian American negotiations making progress despite Israeli opposition, and many other news. Trying to understand the complex dance that is taking place in our part of the world is not straightforward. Continue reading
If we step back to reflect on Egypt’s post-revolution transition… We should not be surprised to find how messy it is. It is actually happening Egyptian style: We will take all the wrong exits, open the wrong doors, make a … Continue reading
Over the next three days, we will have a verdict on the Constituent assembly, Parliament, and Presidential election! If the three institutions are invalidated, this will constitute soft coup! The other likely scenario is Shafiq as a President, co-existing with the FJP-controlled Parliament, and an extended constitution-making process.
Out of all possible combinations, Egyptians ended up with the worst choice for the second round of the Presidential elections. For the 50% of the country who did not vote for Shafik or Morsi, they face a dilemma from hell. Should they cast their vote to reincarnate the old regime or chose the Ikwan’s spare tire who would open the doors to a theocracy? Before making any meaningful decisions, we probably need to sleep over it, internalize this ironic defeat, and understand what really happened. Continue reading
The tragedy of the Brotherhood is, not only that they failed to gain power or even legitimacy in over a century, but also that they failed to stand up to their principles and values, when they had the chance to do so. Continue reading
14 months later, it seems that the Egyptian revolution is struggling at best, dead at worst. The counter revolution, led by the different elements of the previous regime (most of them still in power), is gaining ground. In this analysis, I’m not trying to be optimistic or pessimistic, but rather to reflect on what happened, and why we got to this point, which may help us all as we think of what is next. Continue reading